Communicative Defiance

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad formally inaugurated a heavy-water reactor to be used for peaceful purposes in defiance of the U.N. deadline imposed for Iran to comply or else while declaring it is not a threat to any country, even the “Zionist regime that is the enemy of the countries in the region.” Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 on a populist economic message, promising a redistribution of the nation’s vast oil revenues and economic and infrastructure improvements. Instead, while the economy remains gridlocked, inflation and unemployment high, Ahmadinejad has converted the nuclear issue to his beliefs. With China and Russia, two of the Security Council members, opposed to sanctions and who support Iran’s call for negotiations with America, as it gets bogged down deeper in Iraq and Afghanistan, is it any wonder that on the heels of the perceived Hezbollah victory over Israel, Iran does not feel threatened by America? Can America afford another war front in the region?

To read about how Bush hardliners are trying to portray Iran’s nuclear program as more advanced than it is and exaggerate Tehran’s role in Hezbollah’s attack on Israel is a bad rerun of what they did months before the March 2003 invasion of Iraq. Officials at the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department are right in being concerned about questionable information that originated with Iranian exiles. Iraqi exiles said the same and were believed, even though at the time, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed El Baradei, questioned and challenged their allegations. His assessment proved correct then and now with Iran.

Iran is the most important regional power in the Middle East. This was confirmed by the visit to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki who went there in September 2006 to seek Iran’s support to quell the sectarian violence America can’t. “Iran will give its assistance to establish complete security in Iraq, because Iraq’s security is Iran’s security,” said Iran’s Ahmadinejad during the al-Maliki’s visit. There is no doubt that some elements in Iran were stoking the violence in Iraq in retaliation for the U.S. occupation of Iraq and the Israeli assault in Lebanon.

The emergence of the Shiite crescent that stretches from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon ─ all nations with significant Shiite populations ─ has been getting stronger and wider because of U.S. geopolitical miscalculations. Maliki’s visit to Iran, like that of his predecessor Ibrahim al-Jaafari in July 2005, was a kind of homecoming. They both spent part of their exile from Saddam’s rule living in Iran. Many Shiite political exiles fled to Iran to escape Saddam’s security forces.

The best channels of communication between America and Iran are in the Shiite crescent, namely Iraq. Iran recognizes America is in decline as a regional superpower and is taking advantage of the situation ─ for a change. Iran can help America for a change in Afghanistan and Shi’ite Iraq. It is a dominant historical economic, political and cultural player, one America should embrace. The Shi’ite crescent wave being ridden by Ahmadinejad is one America better catch. That is what Ahmadinejad is hoping he can achieve sooner than later. Hence his letter to Bush, to “propose new ways” to resolve and end 26 years of acrimony on the eve of the U.S. calling for sanctions, was a political bombshell ─ that was followed by an invitation to a political debate to bring people together, rather than reinforce polarized positions.