The U.N.’s Last Gasp
The Lebanon crisis is the poker hand that will determine how long the U.N. will remain relevant in the 21st century. Its survival is on the line. How it uses the life jacket it has been given in Lebanon will determine its fate. Resolution 1559 adopted by the U.N. in September 2004, called for the disbanding of the Hezbollah fighting force in Lebanon and the extension of the Lebanese government’s control over the territory controlled by Hezbollah. Because the resolution had no enforcement mechanism it was ignored.
Israel’s 34 day effort to remove Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon was a futile attempt to enforce Resolution 1559. The exercise was a millennium history lesson of the geopolitical realities in the Middle East that we have to recognize and address in the 21st century to avoid Armageddon.
Resolution 1701 that created the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah repeats the goals of 1559, but provides more ─ but not enough ─ enforcement substance, including an armed U.N. force of up to 15,000 soldiers to support the 15,000 Lebanese soldiers re-positioned there. The resolutions failure to allow soldiers to disarm Hezbollah will prevent a negotiated long term peace settlement. It was the first resolution on a Middle East peacekeeping issue ever to get the backing of all five permanent members of the Security Council ─ a rare opportunity for a permanent peace.
Lebanon’s 1.2 million Shi’ites are the country’s largest religious group and they do support Hezbollah. That is why Hezbollah has also become one of Lebanon’s strongest political forces, with two cabinet ministers and 12 lawmakers in parliament. Any wonder the government is helpless? Any attempt by the government’s 70,000 soldiers to disarm Hezbollah, the best guerilla force in the world, will lead to civil war ─ all the more reason to give the U.N. soldiers fighting power. To leave the securing of the border with Syria and disarming the Hezbollah to the government of Lebanon “at its request, to secure its border and entry points, to prevent entry of arms and related material,” is a non starter even though the parliamentary majority is Sunni and Christian.
Hezbollah emerged from the war emboldened with greater influence over government and accuses anyone who wants it to disarm of treason and completing Israel’s job. Hezbollah does not believe Israel has a right to exist as a sovereign state. Hezbollah’s ultimate objective ─ the destruction of the Israeli state ─ can only mean renewed conflict sooner or later. The Middle East will not have durable stability as long as Hezbollah continues its campaign to destroy Israel, refuses to disarm and channel its energies through Lebanon’s democratic political structure.
The U.N. force is supposed to patrol a specific southern demilitarized zone and help the Lebanese government monitor its borders, ensuring that Iran and Syria do not re-supply Hezbollah with rockets, missiles and ammunition. If it fails to do so, how long will Israel stand by this time and watch the rearmament of Hezbollah in violation of the resolution? After all, Hezbollah managed to fire off 200 missiles on the last day before the ceasefire, and its leader Hassan Nasrallah is still standing, proud and tall. Israel’s hyped military invincibility proved to be hollow. It didn’t even get back the two soldiers it went to war over.
So what is the political solution? Not just for Lebanon but Palestine? The most important lesson of Israel’s incursion is that solutions to conflict must be political, not military ─ political dialogue between neighbors. The current military respite offers the ideal opportunity to find a political solution before another unnecessary military conflict erupts in either Lebanon or Gaza. America and China have to take the lead at the U.N. to initiate permanent peace talks between Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran to avoid another regional conflagration. Military force merely inflicts misery on all parties involved and drives the political solution further away into the distant horizon where the U.N. death knell can be heard.
Peter G. de Krassel is the author of Custom Maid War and Custom Maid Spin
Israel’s 34 day effort to remove Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon was a futile attempt to enforce Resolution 1559. The exercise was a millennium history lesson of the geopolitical realities in the Middle East that we have to recognize and address in the 21st century to avoid Armageddon.
Resolution 1701 that created the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah repeats the goals of 1559, but provides more ─ but not enough ─ enforcement substance, including an armed U.N. force of up to 15,000 soldiers to support the 15,000 Lebanese soldiers re-positioned there. The resolutions failure to allow soldiers to disarm Hezbollah will prevent a negotiated long term peace settlement. It was the first resolution on a Middle East peacekeeping issue ever to get the backing of all five permanent members of the Security Council ─ a rare opportunity for a permanent peace.
Lebanon’s 1.2 million Shi’ites are the country’s largest religious group and they do support Hezbollah. That is why Hezbollah has also become one of Lebanon’s strongest political forces, with two cabinet ministers and 12 lawmakers in parliament. Any wonder the government is helpless? Any attempt by the government’s 70,000 soldiers to disarm Hezbollah, the best guerilla force in the world, will lead to civil war ─ all the more reason to give the U.N. soldiers fighting power. To leave the securing of the border with Syria and disarming the Hezbollah to the government of Lebanon “at its request, to secure its border and entry points, to prevent entry of arms and related material,” is a non starter even though the parliamentary majority is Sunni and Christian.
Hezbollah emerged from the war emboldened with greater influence over government and accuses anyone who wants it to disarm of treason and completing Israel’s job. Hezbollah does not believe Israel has a right to exist as a sovereign state. Hezbollah’s ultimate objective ─ the destruction of the Israeli state ─ can only mean renewed conflict sooner or later. The Middle East will not have durable stability as long as Hezbollah continues its campaign to destroy Israel, refuses to disarm and channel its energies through Lebanon’s democratic political structure.
The U.N. force is supposed to patrol a specific southern demilitarized zone and help the Lebanese government monitor its borders, ensuring that Iran and Syria do not re-supply Hezbollah with rockets, missiles and ammunition. If it fails to do so, how long will Israel stand by this time and watch the rearmament of Hezbollah in violation of the resolution? After all, Hezbollah managed to fire off 200 missiles on the last day before the ceasefire, and its leader Hassan Nasrallah is still standing, proud and tall. Israel’s hyped military invincibility proved to be hollow. It didn’t even get back the two soldiers it went to war over.
So what is the political solution? Not just for Lebanon but Palestine? The most important lesson of Israel’s incursion is that solutions to conflict must be political, not military ─ political dialogue between neighbors. The current military respite offers the ideal opportunity to find a political solution before another unnecessary military conflict erupts in either Lebanon or Gaza. America and China have to take the lead at the U.N. to initiate permanent peace talks between Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran to avoid another regional conflagration. Military force merely inflicts misery on all parties involved and drives the political solution further away into the distant horizon where the U.N. death knell can be heard.
Peter G. de Krassel is the author of Custom Maid War and Custom Maid Spin
posted by Peter de Krassel's Custom Maid Politics at 10:06 PM
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