Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Pax Americana is Passé

The U.S.-led, post-World War II world is done and over, thanks to America’s failure to adhere to the principles of the Founding Fathers. Compromised national and global leadership, more than $10-trillion in debt and the ignition key that sparked the global financial crisis in its hands, have all contributed to America’s shining city upon the hill losing its luster.

The world’s sole superpower abused its global sheriff’s role with unnecessary wars, failed financial instruments and basic misreading of people’s needs ─ at home and abroad. America is no longer the Mecca of modernity, innovation and economic prowess. The era when America was the global locomotive that dictated the rules of international trade, finance and political affairs is over.

America is now perceived as a moral and political failure, as well as a financial and capitalist catastrophe by the developing world. China, on the other hand, because of its centrally controlled prudent fiscal, development and capitalist model that endowed it with more than $2 trillion in reserves, is fast becoming a viable and more acceptable alternative model. Cash-rich China is in a much stronger geopolitical position than cash-strapped America to move aggressively in the developing world and gain access to their commodities and natural resources.

The new world order that will succeed Pax Americana is one in which China will play a dominant and leading role, if for no other reason than it is the biggest holder of U.S. government bonds, accounting for more than 35 percent of the total held by foreign central banks. It is common knowledge in any bankruptcy proceeding that the lead creditor has a lot to say and the debtor has to listen, whether they like it or not. Taken with China’s model of centrally managed mercantilism which is a preferred model for developing countries, especially dictatorships, America must accept the fact that its failure to heed the admonitions of the Founding Fathers of the Republic has rendered it morally impotent.

Most people in Japan, South Korea and China favor a Northeast Asian free trade area including the three countries. Most Americans, on the other hand, are opposed to regional or bilateral agreements.

China must be viewed as a partner, not a competitor. If America insists on viewing China as a competitor, it will lose the competition. It already has. America has to accept China as a willing collaborative partner. America can no longer ignore the more than 230 years of U.S. business success in China and the political collaboration that goes hand in hand with that success. U.S. exports to China have grown much faster than to any other trading partner. In 2007 they grew by 18 percent and since 2000 they have grown by 300 percent. The U.S. is enjoying a resurgence in exports to China, which are driving productivity gains at a time when the U.S. economy critically needs it. The good Sino-U.S. relationship that exists today is a Bush 43 foreign policy success, built since January 1, 1979, when the two countries established diplomatic relations.

The Beijing 2008 Olympics showcased China’s ascendancy, not only as a sporting powerhouse with their record haul of gold medals, but in the global competition for economic supremacy. The Wall Street financial meltdown that cast its depressive shadow on the global economy has made capitalist America a “bailout nation” as communist China has become the center of U.S. capital and the new Confucian capitalism. China is fast becoming the world’s economic leader.
America is losing its perch of global supremacy. In 2000, U.S. stock exchanges accounted for about half the value of global stock markets; at the beginning of 2008, they accounted for just 33 percent ─and shrinking.

America can only help itself by helping China embrace the future with it as a partner. There is no more room for fear-mongering or bashing of China. The reality of modern China has to be accepted for what it is. America must broaden and deepen its ties with China into a concrete partnership with meaningful economic and military alliances. America must accept the fact that China is part of the solution and not the problem. America must start, sooner rather than later, taking the long-term view of its beneficial relationship with China.

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