Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Regime Change-Policy Change

The Islamic Republic of Iran is an “outpost of tyranny” and “remains the world’s primary state sponsor of terrorism – pursuing nuclear weapons while depriving its people of the freedom they seek and deserve,” President Bush said. He added in his State of the Union address: “To the Iranian people, I say tonight: As you stand for your own liberty, America stands with you.” The Iranian mullahs’ own polls show that 70 percent of Iranians hate the regime and want “regime change”.

Regime change did take place in 1979 when the Shah was sent into exile. So did America’s nuclear policy towards Iran. Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz all held key national security posts in the administration of President Gerald Ford in 1976 when it endorsed plans to build a multibillion dollar nuclear energy industry in Iran.

Their plan would have given Iran control of large quantities of plutonium and enriched uranium – the two key ingredients to producing a nuclear weapon. President Ford signed a directive in 1976 offering Teheran the chance to buy and operate a US-built reprocessing facility for extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The deal was for a complete “nuclear fuel cycle” – reactors powered by and regenerating fissile materials on a self-sustaining basis – the exact ability the Bush administration is trying to prevent Iran from acquiring today. “I don’t think the issue of proliferation came up,” said Henry Kissinger who was Ford’s secretary of state.

President Ford’s administration commended Iran’s decision to build a massive nuclear energy industry, noting in a declassified 1975 strategy paper that Teheran needed to “prepare against the time – about 15 years in the future – when Iranian oil production is expected to decline sharply.” The Ford strategy paper went on to say the “introduction of nuclear power will both provide for the growing needs of Iran’s economy and free remaining oil reserves for export or conversion to petrochemicals.” Energy experts and U.S. intelligence estimates continue to project that Iran will need an alternative energy source in the coming decades. Iran’s population has more than doubled since the 1970s, and its energy demands have increased even more. Yet Vice President Cheney said: “They’re already sitting on an awful lot of oil and gas. Nobody can figure why they need nuclear as well to generate energy.”

“It is absolutely incredible that the very same players who made those statements then are making completely the opposite ones now,” said Joseph Cirincione, a nonproliferation expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Do they remember that they said this? Because the Iranians sure remember that they said it,” said Cirincione, upon his return from a nuclear conference in Teheran in early 2005.

What is the best way to bring about the next regime and policy changes?

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