Effective Mediator ─ Stalled Agreement

China has proven that it is capable of mediation in thorny international disputes. China is a power broker that did strong-arm a recalcitrant North Korea to the negotiating table in February 2007, to sign off on an agreement that was hailed as another “breakthrough.” John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. summed up the terms of the agreement best, a “charade” and a “hollow agreement.” Let’s also keep in mind that North Korea has has reneged on many agreements it signed and sealed in the past.

The point not to be missed while people debate the merits of the agreement is, China can muscle regimes that ignore U.S. threats and are reluctant to accept America’s overtures. What China did to North Korea is something it can do with Iran as well. Especially now that Kim has agreed to stop nuclear proliferation and is known to be helping Iran prepare for its first nuclear underground test. Iranian military advisors regularly visit North Korea to participate in missile tests. North Korean technical knowledge can expedite the Iranian nuclear program and put it on a fast lane no one is prepared for. Only China can help the U.S. derail the test and Iranian nuclear program.

The agreement is even worse than the one negotiated by the Clinton administration in 1994 that the Bush administration scrapped in 2002. All North Korea agreed to do was shut down its main nuclear reactor and “eventually” dismantle its atomic weapons program. North Korean media hailed the agreement as a “temporary suspension” of the countries nuclear facilities. There are too many unanswered questions left to be addressed in the future. An invisible road map left to the parties sincerity and good faith.

What happens to the uranium enrichment program which was not addressed in the agreement and the half dozen plus nuclear warheads Kim is believed to possess? Warheads that can probably be delivered to Japan by North Korean missiles and backpacks to America.

Kim certainly came out the winner and proved how weak and desperate America is for some geopolitical progress on any international front to shore up its disastrous policies in Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela…where does one stop?


The fact is that although North Korea has tried to formally end the Korean War and normalize relations with America since 1991, it will not give up the nuclear weapons it has worked so hard to develop without regime change. To get the necessary regime change, the six party talks have to be jettisoned and new five party talks without North Korea start, as I proposed in my October 30, 2006 blog “Forgeetaaaboutit ─ Treat North Korea Like Haiti,” before a new U.S. administration with an eight year window is in place. Kim is smart and recognizes that the Bush administration will sign off on any deal today to claim a victorious success, and no more. After all why should Dear God trust the Bush administration any more than the Clinton administration it succeeded ─ and promptly disavowed and dishonored the 1994 agreement?

The Dear Leader is stuck in the sixties Cold War mentality and is waiting for America’s political meltdown because he believes that he can then get everything he is demanding of America. China will not allow him to continue on his delusional path and will continue to reign in its recalcitrant over dependent neighbor.